Sigh..... another "economist" calling a bottom.

I've learned from many years of trading markets such as stocks and commodities, that when sentiment is the most bearish that's when a bottom is in. When people get complacent is when a market is about to turn. 12 months worth of inventory in Naples is 66% less than Lee. Compared to National averages Naples also has less inventory. We were the first to top and are probably the first to rebound. I'm not a real estate investor nor am I a realtor, just a resident with experience in bull and bear markets.

Can the NDN reporter who wrote this story explain why just two days ago, The Naples Area Board Of Realtors was reporting inventory numbers and concluded that there was a 32 month supply of homes in Collier County? This was a story-reported in the Naples Daily News. A good reporter would ask Mr. Fishkind where he gets his 12 month inventory figure for Collier County. Take it from someone in the industry, me, the 32 month inventory figure is closer to the truth, and that may be a conservative number.

How did this economist determine that we are now at the bottom? What will happen when interest rates rise, or more homes are built? It is also laughable that he would say the speculation was at a minimum in Collier County, he must not have done much research.

Wow swfljim, I believe you if you are in the business. This is all sounding fishy to me now. Get it? Fishkind? ha ha. But seriously, what is the real figure? Who should we trust?

MamaDukes,

Have you ever heard the classic disclaimer from stock traders?

"Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Therefore, you should not assume that the future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy will be profitable or equal to corresponding past performance levels."

IE We have never seen a runup like this before so we do not know what will happen.

Attila,

Awesome job finding that info.

Sanity, of course I know that disclaimer. If I had a crystal ball I'd be rich! However, I was just talking about market sentiment, not past results. In addition, I know from experience that bottoms can take much longer to form than tops of markets. Topping markets usually fall fast and hard and that's just what happened here.

The real question again is who do we trust to give us the correct figures on housing inventory? I wish I could go to that conference this afternoon. Maybe we'll hear more later.

Attila makes a great point, one that every media outlet in this area fails on time after time. Not just the NDN, but The News-Press, and the broadcast news departments in this area never offer an explanation or disclaimer that someone's comments or observations may be influenced by their relationship with the parties that they are speaking about. On CNBC, every stock analyst must disclose if they, their family, or the company they work for has a financial interest in any of the equities they comment about. If the local media outlets would take a cue from their larger market counterparts, and stop writing a story based solely on whatever press release shows up in the newsroom, and ask a few questions-like a solid journalist should-they would be taken much more seriously. One has to wonder if the sales department, which depends heavily on real estate advertising, is a little too close to the newsroom at our local media outlets.

Why even take a so called expert seriously. I remember reading about a Dr. Gray predicting a large amount of Hurricanes coming our way this summer.

An expert is defined as anyone who carries a briefcase and is from more than 50 miles away. They are paid to say what their clients want to hear. Nothing more, nothing less.

Yes, Dr "We are all going to die" Grey is a prime example of an "expert".

People need to be skeptical especially with this market. Way too many paid shills out there that want to rob you blind.

NDN,

Please keep posting this on the main page. People need to be aware of this "economist" background.

You guys are really rockheads, you belong on Fox.News. I have never seen such dripping attacks on any bit of good news. The market is going to go where it is going. It is not going to be swayed either up or down by a luncheon talk by a regional economist with or without real estate clients. NDN reported the conference as a straight news story without commentary or editorializing. Thus they had no responsiblilty to "vett" the speaker.

Attila,

Does Fishkind have such clients because he is good at what he does - or - is he good at what he does because he has the clients?

If he is less than objective than why is he against property tax reform - which is something that would benefit clients.

As for the difference in # of month home inventory, it is tied to new household formation projections - which can differ - as most blindly follow BEBR.

Believe this guy and next your gonna believe that the moon is made out of green cheese.

How can this economist state that other areas of the economy are still strong? Is he truly an economist? What is his degree in? He seems to be making a commentary, but without any statistical analysis to back his information up. My favorite part, is the government sector and how it remains strong. ARE YOU kidding Dr. Fishkind? Do you realize the budgetary constraints of the tax cuts in our local governmental services? What economic impact study did you conduct to spew out this information. It is obvious to me that you are basically chatting about the market, but you do not present any figures to back up your information. I smell something and it is very FISHY....FALSE and FISHY.
Oh and the condo market...that too is still not bad. There are still some sales with lowered prices. This is a market correction, and the prices will have to be lowered by sellers. Simple equation.

C'mon guys...we have all been to sales meetings meant to pump up the volume, meanwhile no one is listening.

I got a call this week from one of my old partners. He is approaching 70, well-off, and is looking to retire someplace warmer than Illinois. His kids and their kids still all reside in and around Chicago.

He wants to buy here, AND still spend considerable time in Chicago. Die-hard White Sox fan is he, and I spent 20 years denegrating him for that.

My advice was to come down here and low-ball the hell out "realtors" down here, because of the 2 year supply of homes. I warned him of the disparity between locals and yankees. I warned him of association fees. I warned him of "impact fees". He asked what could $400K get him? I told him I really didn't know, but he and Judy should come down for a weekend.

I suspect he will go elsewhere because of better deals being offered.

Florida killed the golden goose. A lot of buildings with no one in them.

I'm sure it was a good sales meeting though.

This crackpot must be smoking the product of SW Florida's leading export= hydroponics from the grow houses in Cape Coral & Lehigh & G C Estates. So called "EXPERT"...

Just like the wall street analysts of 2000.
You could figure out the inventory all you want. You can try and figure out the demand. Then predict future prices and the amount that will be sold. No one can do that. There are too many moving parts now. Credit problems and fear of buying now. There needs to be panic buying or panic selling to recognize a bottom (panic buying is when buyers think the price will go up without them) and we have not seen that. Everything else is a prediction of time.

There is panic selling right now. Example, Berkshire condo, sold early 2005 $335,000. Sold in July, $195,000. New development Verona Walk: house sold in 2005, $595,000. Offered on the market today: $399,000. Same house new today offered by Divosta: $462,000. Many examples of houses on the market for two years. Buyers begging for offers. There are some real bargains out their. I sold my house and some real estate in spring of 2005. I rented for over two years. I'm closing on my new house in a couple of years. I bought at one of the fire sales. I'm not afraid.

The rest of you fear mongering losers can sit back, vote for Rudi, and cry in your bear at the local pub.

There was a market exactly like this back in 1980-1985. I was working for ppl on Marco Island back then. Lots on Roberts Bay were at 72k at the begining. Inside of 3 years those same lots were 525k. The market died a couple years after that and the lots still hit 600k +. Today, those lots go for in excess of a million.

So, there has been an exact copy of this recent madness in the market. Just start checking county records begining in the early 80's and follow it to today. It would give you some kind of an idea as to where and when. The county has gotten at least three times as many residents as it had back then. And guess what, those prices never came back down. They have only continuted to rise. At a slower pace.

The only ones that did come down, was from when the person doing the investing, didn't have the money to carry them through. Same thing is happening this time, as last. And it will happen again in about 20 more years.

I bought in the estates back in 1987, towards the end of the last crazy time. The high time. 4+ acres for 13.4k, today at this moment, if I took the lowest price that acreage is being sold for, which is about 35k per acre. I would still see a size able return.

It's amazing how many people think they are smarter than an intelligent person. I guess these pundits are all millionaires!!

Woops, I met a couple of weeks, not a couple of years.

Hello Attila

You windbag...

My Dear Mister Fishkind,

STOP SMOKING CRACK!

The bottom of the housing market is so far down underwater that sunlight won't reach the tops of the houses!

There are MILLIONS of ARM resets occuring the end of this month and every month throught the middle of 2009!

Millions of those ARM holders will default rather then make the new payments, why? Because they can't, they know it, and would rather hold on to the cash till the eviction takes place then turn their equity holdings into interest payments for something they never should have been loaned in he first place.

I really wish the Nazi Daily News and other propaganda rags would stop trying to sell Americans on the idea that everything is going to be fine, we're at some kind of bottom and now is the time to...<drum rollllll>...BUY!

They're just people with a vested interest in the failing housing industry that are trying to squeeze the last farthing out of any sucka that is a big enough sucka to buy.

This game is just getting started.

Looky here: GOLD is in the 770 an OZ range, a barrel of oil is over NINETY (90!) dollars! The US Dollar has tanked against ALL other currencies. But...if you examine te cost of items purchased using a currency like the EURO you will discern that oil, gas, housing, food etc. have NOT gone up! In other words the US Dollar is rapidly becoming worthless.

To find out the real problem that is coming google crash boom mises and see what is going to happen next.

And stop listening to these liars, "I promise I won't ____ in your mouth" is a lie today just like it has been for 2000 years. So is "We're at the bottom it's time to buy!".

More homes would be listed in the Naples market. However, I know of some home owners who finally gave up because they could not sell and took their home off the market. We are not at the bottom if we get another hurricane. Another hurricane for FL. will knock the state off its feet. I’d rather be a tourist than a home owner here.

The bottom feeders (developers, politicians and realtors) will no dought be bailed out by their Republican friends in Tallahassee. Leaving us the home owners to pay for their bad judgment and greed.

SWF is taxing the snowbirds out, look for more and more folks I know seem to be buying their second homes in Texas and Arkansas.

These states are attractive because of the cost of land is far less that in Florida, homes are cheaper to build and the taxes are much more reasonable.

The developers have owned the Republican politicians at the state legislature and governors office for to long and in unison they have made it unaffordable to live here and have run this state into the ground.

For those of you that want the snowbirds to go away, you may get your wish. Then we can pay for it all.

All the freezing northerners are hearing about the bargains...
We have built it and they will come.

why dont i hear a fat lady singing?

Florida has been overbuilt, overtaxed and it's time to pay the piper. A three year inventory of homes is an ugly prospect. The developers will get their relief from Tallahasse and we will get the bill.

Good comment smarty. Many other states are now becoming attractive to retires. the Carolina's, Tennessee, Arkansas, Texas, Georgia and even Alabama are actively pursuing retirees with low taxes, low insurance and other incentives.

Florida is not the end all in retirement any longer. While there may always be market for some retirees to come here it will not ever be like it once was. High taxes, insurance, housing costs along with hurricane concerns have changed the market greatly the past few years.

I know most people my age living here are not planning on retiring here locally. Most are looking at other southern states due to the facts I mentioned above. What does that tell you? If people that have lived here a long time do not wish to stay should that not point to a problem?

Rainman: There has never been anything close to this market in history due to the implications of the easy and cheap credit, CDOs, mass speculation, HGTV, resetting ARMs and foreclosures, and ease of obtaining information via the internet. Nothing.

Blah..blah..Blah...just like the tech crash of 2000 was the end of tech investing?? It's looking pretty hot now. Remember this well...THE ONLY ONES GETTING WHACKED IN THIS DOWNTURN ARE THE SPECULATORS SITTING WITH MULTIPLE PROPERTIES OR THE UNSAVVY BUYERS WHO THOUGHT THEY COULD GET AWAY WITH INTEREST ONLY, NO-VERIFICATION, NO MONEY DOWN MORTGAGES. And oh yes..those wall street types who bought bundles of these hybrid investment products built on those flimsy economics!!
I don't hear anyone yelling who bought a conventional fixed rate mortgaged property and who plans on living in it.

Wow all you bloggers are experts, I am so amazed at the intelligence here. Opinions Opinions Opinions. Thats all you have to offer. This should be named the complainers blog. Any good news on any topic is quickly denounced. No wonder people complain about living here, with all you naggers, nay-sayers and whiners who would want to be around you all.

Trehuger: The information is all out there. GO GET IT. It doesn't take a genius to figure out that worst is not behind us. The reason that informed people jump on "good news" about housing is that usually it's pure nonsense.

Atilla..Are you real or a monkey pounding keys?? Back up to 1995 NASDAQ (which is NOT a pure tech idex) broke through 1000 for the first time. Then it hit 5000 in 2000. Thats 5 times in 5 years. Now it sits at 2700. Which is nearly 3 times since 1995. The point of this exercise, my little monkey, is to demonstrate the long term value of investing whether it is in stocks or real estate. Speculators, no matter what market must have superb timing to make profits. The SWF real estate market long term is a great investment no matter what all you rockheads of gloom and doom can say. (next you are going to spit out the old "In the long run, we are all dead" twaddle.

Reality of the realty situation is what it is, negative. The clowns in Tallahasse couldn't fix a flat and will only help the developers, the taxpaying working people be blasteded.

Hey Attila!

How DARE yu confuse people with FACTS! Doncha know that FACTS are just not believable?

All the FACTS on earth will not convince a moron that they are wrong or more likely they will not convince a person in error to admit to making the error, they'll continue to defend their actions and the rror making more errors along the way until no one wants to deal with them any longer.

This article was written by a Bozo with a vested interest in 'pumping' the market. It's just too bad that nazi Daily News reports ADs for real estate sales as factual stories. this story should run with the headline disclaimer "ADVERTISEMENT!".

GNA,

After reading some of your previous posts from your profile, I can only conclude that you are an out of work realtor. If you are calling us "rockheads" I would take that as a compliment after reading some of your pearls of wisdom.

Some of your more memorable unbiased "expert" opinions:

"If you are looking ahead 10 years, this plunge in the market represents one of the alltime great opportunities to score a great investment. Warren Buffet did not get rich by buying at the top of the market!! If you have half a brain I would not sell Naples and SWF Florida short in the face of an oncoming tsunami of retiring baby boomers!!"
-Posted on June 26 at 9:55 a.m.
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"Crashing markets are great for bargain hunters. Is that why they refer to economic CYCLES??? As long as the sun sets on the Gulf, the temps are in the 70's in January and the boomers keep boomin in the next 25 years, Naples real estate investors have NOTHING to worry about. (As long as you follow the...CYCLES!!"
Posted on May 7 at 10:03 a.m.

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"Auctions are a sign of the bottom. They give real data to the pricing structure, not assumptions. If you see a comparable house sell for x amount at auction, you would fix that price as the low end for a similar house you are buying. You would pay more only for perceived value on top of that. That is how auctions point to the bottom. The more auctions taking place the more relevance buyers will give to pricing. Naples has not had that experience until now. In fact we had the reverse a short time ago, namely Lotterys to buy housing, remember those?? They pointed to the top of the market. Now we see the bottom."
Posted on October 12 2006 at 9:53 a.m.

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GNA have you ever heard the disclaimer that past performance is no indicator of future results?
We have never seen the housing market go up so fast in so little time. There were no basic market fundamentals that justified the rapid increase of homes other than speculation. Speculative markets are not good for economies while sustained growth is. Yes this was a cycle, a boom and bust cycle.
On your long term investment comment, its kinda hard to make a long term investment when you got wiped out financially by the bust isn't it?

gna,

I don't know that I speak for everybody here but I would rather be a monkey pounding on the keyboard than an out of work realtor.

Cornandbeans, congratulations on having the insight, and good luck, to have hit a home-run. I'm sorry for all the people whom were caught up in the "irrational exuberance" of the real estate run up. You sold near the top and, even if you don't buy at the exact bottom, so what? You have to live somewhere, and even though we'll never see a run up in prices like we experienced before, there will be a steady climb in value as inventory is reduced.
I just closed on a "short sell" property on Ft. Myers beach. The owner had gotten caught up in the exuberance, and took out a large equity loan on her paid off farm house and land. She then purchased 3 properties on the water with the idea of a quick sell and great profits. Her timing and rational could not have been worse. She paid $487,000 for a 1100 square foot condo, great gulf view; also the highest price ever paid for one in the building. The market corrected and she was way "under water". The bank agreed to a short sell on the properties. I purchase it for $199,900 cash, one of my best deals in years. I already have it fully leased for season at $6,000 per month.
The number of short sell properties is going fast to savvy investors who can move fast and pay cash.
They're are also many great deals in single family, but only those who understand the market psychology will benefit the most. The others will jump in when things start to heat up again (at a much more moderate pace), and will benefit in varying degrees until the cycle repeats again, with losses for those that are at the end.

You guys are indeed Rockheads...You are so far from the facts that I might be a...pause for effect..ahhhhhhhhh!! Realtor!! In fact I see the internet as blowing away the realtor business model. The only product the realtor had to sell was "knowledge". The internet now makes that knowledge universally available, which is "power". The very essence of free market interchange can happen now without the realtor in the middle. Just as it has brought wholesale change to the travel industry it will bring it the real estate industry. I just get so worked up over self-righteous blowhards peeing in any bowl of cornflakes they see. The constant bashing of SWF on these forums is very boring and adds nothing to the debate. Let me concede it now. All you rockheads are the smartest guys on the planet and you all know everything about everything in Naples and SWF. There, you can go back to pounding the keys now.

Florida housing will take 15 to 20 years to totally rebound. It's a good time to buy if your in it for the long run, otherwise forget it if your into short term investing. It's over.

New boomer retirees are flocking to Texas and Arkansas for low housing /land prices and very low taxes on 2nd homes. This is the emerging retiree 2nd home market.

Florida politicians and developers have killed the golden goose with their greed.

thinking the bottom is here is wishful thinking.
but to say 15 to 20 years is unreasonable in so many ways.

2 Smarty: agree with you. Long-term, housing in SWF is a good investment. Short-term is dead. Similar story in many markets. Florida will always be attractive, however. Texas and Arkansas will attract lower budget buyers, but SWF will still be the choice of better-off ones. From my point of view, believe it or not, it is a good time buying if you talk long-term and house with land, not a condo. I am, in fact, in the process of buying a house now. If you work in Europe, it looks good with the dollar falling.