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TALLAHASSEE — Florida's economic slump is worse than state economists had predicted earlier this year, and now they say it'll last about six months longer than previously expected.

Their February outlook had been for recovery to start about a year from now, but a new update says things probably won't begin turning around until the end of 2009.

"It's a bit more bleak than it was originally," legislative economist Amy Baker said Thursday. "Things are very weak in the next year, but then we do start to see recovery and we do get back to normal growth rates."

Florida's downturn began in 2007 due to the end of an extended housing boom, which had been heightened by the replacement and repair of homes damaged by hurricanes in 2004-05, according to the report issued Wednesday by the Florida Economic Estimating Conference.

The slump is going to last longer because the national economy now also is in decline, burdened by high fuel and food costs and distressed housing and credit markets, said Baker, coordinator of the Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research.

"Until that clears, it's going to have spillover effects both on individuals looking to go buy a house and get a mortgage but also on homebuilders and other construction folks," Baker said.

The report notes Florida lost 74,700 jobs — 54 percent directly related to the construction downturn — over a 12-month period ending in May. That's more than any other state, but Baker said anything that happens in Florida is going to be big because it's the fourth-largest state.

Florida's May unemployment rate of 5.5 percent was the state's highest since January 2003 but the same as the national rate. The report predicts Florida's rate will get worse, hitting a high of 6.03 percent in the fiscal year beginning July 1, 2009.

She said the state's slump has been so deep and long because it follows a housing boom of historic proportions that created many of the jobs now being lost.

"A lot of the job losses that you see are in the nature of being a correction, a very painful correction, but a correction," Baker said.

Florida has been through boom and bust cycles before, but few booms have lasted as long — five years — or seen such big increases in housing starts, prices and sales, Baker said. Also, the most recent boom was statewide while others had been regional.

"We've never experienced that before," she said.

Florida property tax cuts and the national stimulus program that sent rebates of $300 to $1,200 to millions of Americans have been of little help, Baker said.

Those dollars are being eaten up by gasoline and food price increases or used to pay off old bills instead of being spent on new goods and services, she said.

"We're kind of fighting against forces that are bigger than the state," Baker said.

Growth is a major economic driver for the state, but the national housing slump and credit crunch have prevented people from moving to or doing business in Florida.

Population is continuing to grow, just not as fast. Florida is still on track to break the 20 million mark in 2013 and before then surpass New York as the nation's third-largest state.

Growth since the mid-1990s had ranged from 2 percent to 2.6 percent annually but it's expected to be about half as much over the next four years.

The economists will apply the revised outlook when they develop a state revenue estimate this fall that'll be used to write Florida's next budget.

The state has cut spending by about $5 billion over the past year because of falling revenue. The new outlook is a signal more declines and budget cuts may be in store, Baker said.