User profile: barron
Joined: April 14, 2008
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Comments by barron
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Posted on August 4 at 12:06 p.m.
And now for the really bad news on housing...This interview from earlier today featuring the same analyst who correctly predicted the current turmoil in the credit markets:
Posted on May 18 at 1:20 p.m.
It was an all-cash deal, said Rainer Filthaut, president of AB Tuscany Holdings Inc., the parent company of the purchaser.
_________________________________
The Company
IRC International Realty Corporation is an owner-operated real estate company specializing in the Southwest Florida market.
Rainier Filthaut - Port Royal resident - with offices located at:
3838 Tamiami Trail N. Suite 416 :- Naples, FL 34103 :: Tel.239-213-4000 ::
Posted on May 17 at 3:46 p.m.
As post#13 stated, Toll has significant land positions in Naples --
A quick visit to collierappraiser.com verifies this.
Toll Rattlesnake LLC - an accumulation of vacant land adjacent to Sabal Palm Rd valued at more than $100m
Toll FL II LLC - an accumulation of land adjacent to IMMOKALEE Rd at Wild Turkey Drive also valued at more than $100m and also sits vacant
Toll FL V LLC - a tract of land at IMMOKALEE and I75 valued at $15m that sits vacant
Toll FL IV LLC - also known as Firano - look at the arial view of this ray of hope
http://maps.collierappraiser.com/webm...
If you watch the Toll interview you will see he is extremely negative about US housing - Why would that be --- maybe he is hoping that the President won`t veto the housing bill that has billions of dollars of handouts to builders such as Toll Bros. Why is he more positive about Naples - maybe he trying to sell some of those vacant tracts of land his company is sitting on...
Posted on May 17 at 12:09 p.m.
Oh and if you are interested here is a link to the Toll interview (video)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video...
and here is a link to another interview (text) with Toll back in February where he made a similar statement about Naples
"Robert I. Toll, chairman and chief executive officer, stated: "The selling season, which we believe starts in mid-January, has been weak for the third year in a row. We have seen a few glimmers of hope, for example, in the Naples, Florida area and the suburban Washington D.C. market. The improvement in Naples, which was a tremendous market before the downturn, is noteworthy because from March 2006 through late 2007, it seemed as though we couldn't give away a home there. In metro D.C., which was among the first markets to weaken, we have seen the glimmer before and it faded; perhaps this time it won't."
http://www.primenewswire.com/newsroom...
In both cases his glimmer or ray of hope for Naples relates to dumping inventory at a 40% discount from buyers who walked -- we're talking maybe 7 or 10 houses here, that's it.
Some anecdotal data:
An original bungalow in Aqualane recently sold for $1,725m as a building lot (451 21st Ave )- it previously sold in the spring of 2005 for $2.9m and the year before that $1.5m
A relatively new 4,000 sq ft custom home in Aqualane (777 17th Ave S) recently sold for $2,150m. The most recent asking price was aprox $2.4m) and when it first went on the market in July 2005 the ask was $4.9m.
Yes Canadians and Europeans are coming into the market -- why? Houses at 40% to 50% discounts from the peak and currencies that have, relative to the US dollar, appreciated significantly - in some cases by almost 100%. Put another way the reduced purchasing power of the US dollar is subsidizing the housing market -- think about that the next time you fill up at $3.89/gallon or look at the interest on your savings account.
Posted on May 17 at 11:25 a.m.
Yes indeed Naples is a ray of hope for Toll Brothers as they have sold out (supposedly) their spec inventory (homes buyers walked away from).
Before everyone takes to the street in celebration - do yourself a favor and take a trip to their Firano development and see for yourself the vast empty tracts where just a fraction of the 112 home sites have been built on or are under contract. Firano is located 5 miles east of 41 on Davis Blvd.
Aviano, which is their other development is located near Pine Ridge and Livingston and had just a handful of spec homes that they were selling off at discounts of 40% from oringial list prices.
This is Bob Toll's ray of hope - and for the record he has not sold out his spec inventory, at least according to their website where they are still trying to unload at least three spec homes.
Posted on May 14 at 8:30 a.m.
Excerpts from an article on the Florida Department of Health website:
http://www.doh.state.fl.us/environmen...
"Respiratory irritation due to toxic particles airborne in sea spray is typical of some Karenia species
and has been reported for a Trichodesmium bloom in Brazil." (page 9)
"One of the theories for why Florida has K. brevis blooms (Red Tide) involves species adaptations and interactions in a physical and chemical matrix on the west Florida shelf. This theory can account for most of the large red tides off the west coast of Florida (7). The theory recognizes that Saharan dust contains iron and iron is deposited over the west coast during storm events when the dust is carried from South Africa across the Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico (7,8). These dust events precede Trichodesmium blooms based on an analysis of the historical database. The Trichodesmium blooms precede K. brevis blooms, which lag behind the cyanophyte blooms. Trichodesmium is an atmospheric nitrogen fixer but requires among other elements, iron for its enzymes. This cyanophyte or blue-green alga can occupy thousands of square kilometers of the Gulf of Mexico and can be very dense. The regenerated nutrients from these blooms, particularly regenerated nitrogen, could fuel large red tides, as could decomposing dead fish from fish kills." (page 10)
On Algae found at 4 Collier beaches; more expected this weekend
Posted on May 13 at 9:59 p.m.
The color of the surf as it rolled in south of the pier on Saturday was brown instead of white along with an odour in the air that was reminiscent of wet paint. The further south from the pier one travelled the greater the intensity and with the strong onshore breeze, the odour carried east of Gordon Drive leading some to believe that there may have been a chemical spill. On Sunday the water color improved, however the odour was still present. Many long time regulars at the beach indicated that this was the first time they had ever seen such an occurrence.
On Algae found at 4 Collier beaches; more expected this weekend
Posted on April 29 at 8:58 a.m.
Keep in mind that Dr. Fishkind also made the following prediction back in 2004:
"I do not see any evidence of a housing bubble in Orlando or anywhere else in Florida"
http://www.fishkind.com/radio/061604s...
On Housing market recovery on track in Collier, slower in Lee
Posted on April 14 at 2:58 p.m.
Sunday's paper had more than 40 pages of Real Estate advertising plus a 60 page real estate advertising insert.
I suspect that anything other than a positive front page headline on the real estate market would not have gone over too well in the advertising department.
The current economic crisis is in its early stages and it would not be unreasonable to expect housing prices to return to those levels that we saw in 2000.
Meanwhile in Washington the "Foreclosure Prevention Act" was passed in the Senate. If you take the time to read it you will discover it has more to do with handing billions of dollars of tax relief to corporate home builders than helping people stay in their homes.
http://banking.senate.gov/_files/0402...
On SPECIAL REPORT: Market turning around for $300,000 and under homes
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Posted on August 15 at 9:36 a.m.
I know the above article is about resale but an interesting interview with Bob Toll (Toll Brothers) who has frequently cited Naples as a bright spot did not single it out this time but did make this rather curious comment about his company's marketing approach.
"When we hold specials, which are not really specials but just some reconfigured incentives grouped to make it look as though something special is being given away...we can typically sell a multiple of two or even three times (the norm)"
(minute 3:30 of the video)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video...
It makes you think that when he did single out Naples as a bright spot in previous interviews he may have been simply trying to "make it look as though something special was going on" to move some inventory. (a tactic not dissimilar to the headline of this article)
He goes on in the intereview to suggest that this could be described as "housing depression" but states that new homes can't go much lower based on building costs e.g. better to sit on the land.
Bob Toll does however see further downside on prices for resale housing.
On Buyers descending on Naples area as home sales continue rebound